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Box Office Numbers
Posted by Will on December 10, 2007 at 5:58 am
The Golden Compass’ massive budget of around $250 million means that it needs to succeed, and succeed big, at the box office. Unfortunately for New Line - and for fans hoping for sequels - the movie appears to be floundering somewhat at the American box-office. Whilst it has taken the number one spot, over this weekend, the film took in just $27 million. Last week, New Line said they were hoping for between $30 and $40 million.

For reference, Slashfilm give this comparison with other fantasy films’ opening weekends:

      Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $102.6M
      & the Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.6M
      & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $90.2M
      & the Chamber of Secrets - $88.3M
      The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $72.6M
      The Chronicles of Narnia - $65.5M
      The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $62M
      The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring - $47.2M
      The Golden Compass - $27M (estimate)
      Eragon - $23.2M
      Bridge to Terabithia - $22.5M
      Stardust - $9.1M opening

Whilst Harry Potter is in a league of its own, that The Golden Compass came in nowhere near even the first Lord of the Rings and made just $4 million more than Eragon is worrying. Indeed, Slashfilm call the numbers a “disaster”. Cinematical say it has “crashed and burned”, writing that “with muted buzz at best, expect Golden’s numbers to plummet next weekend, especially with a new crowd of pre-Christmas contenders packing in, and total domestic box office to top out at around $80 million. Ouch.”

Industry blogger Nikki Finke calls it a “bomb” and a “flop”, citing also low per screen averages. Paul Dergarabedian at Media By Numbers, a tracking firm, says “It’s below expectations, but it’s not an out-and-out debacle.” News agency Reuters’ headline on the matter is “Golden Compass disappoints at Box Office”.

“It’s a little bit disappointing,” said Rolf Mittweg, president and chief operating officer of New Line’s worldwide distribution and marketing operations. The Guardian reports Mittweg as saying exit polls were favourable and that he was hoping word of mouth would help the film in coming weeks, especially with school holidays starting. “It’s all about longevity,” Mittweg said.

The film’s producer, Deborah Forte, was asked the the premiere’s press conference what level of gross The Golden Compass needed to take at the box office in order for the sequels to get the go-ahead. She was not best-pleased at the question and answered that New Line would be taking into consideration worldwide takings. There, the film may be faring better.

Variety say it has “taken Europe by storm”. In the UK, the film took $3.1 million in the first two days, beating Narnia’s record. With little competition, French, Spanish and German takings are also very good. This does not translate into money for New Line however - the studio sold off foreign distribution rights before the film was released. Mittner says proceeds from those sales have covered about 60 percent of the film’s budget. Taking into account outside investors and tax breaks, he said New Line was covered for about 70 to 80 percent of the budget, and the film would be profitable for the studio.

These will be a worrying few days for New Line and Chris Weitz regardless.



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76 Comments:

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Gabrobot says:

It’s doing very well WW actually…

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117977310.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

Also, I’ve seen the number $180 million thrown around quite a bit now so it’s possible that’s what New Line is saying the “official” budget is.

December 10, 2007 6:02 am | link

Will says:

Yeah, $180 is the ‘official’ budget.

I’ve added that Variety article to the post; it’s a more concise source.

December 10, 2007 6:12 am | link

pan_fan says:

well what do they expect….to most fans the movie was a disappointment.

December 10, 2007 6:20 am | link

karina says:

New Line seems to stay positive on the subject:”We were hoping for a little better domestically, but the international numbers were solid,” said Rolf Mittweg, New Line’s president and chief operating officer of worldwide distribution and marketing.

December 10, 2007 6:33 am | link

George Beahm says:

I read somewhere that on opening weekend that Hollywood executives spend most of it waiting to throw up by Monday morning, if the numbers aren’t good.

The movie’s gotten good reviews and middling reviews and poor reviews, but we’re talking three days here, so far, and the movie’s still got a long way to go, both in the US and worldwide.

For the record, I think the movie could have used another 15 minutes to explain a bit more about daemons, the alethiometer, and esp. Dust, but other than that, I found a lot to like and indeed admire about the film.

Watching the BO on late Sunday and worrying about it is like worrying about a football game in the first quarter, when there’s three more to go … and a whole season and playoffs to follow. In other words, let’s show a little faith here, guys, and let’s let Chris and the folks at New Line know that we appreciate their huge investment of time and money and effort, and do what we can to share our enthusiasm (as has Philip Pullman) with others, because we’d all like to see THE SUBTLE KNIFE and THE AMBER SPYGLASS, and other Pullman adaptations on the screen.

At the movie theater I went to, people cheered when Iorek won the fight with the false bear King, and cheered again and clapped loudly when the film ended. So I think there’s a large, mainstream audience out there that will give it a chance. So let’s look long-term on this one and see what the final numbers are in, say, January after it’s had its principal run.

Optimistically Yours,

George Beahm

December 10, 2007 7:17 am | link

the truth says:

:(

Anyone know how much they maid off the sneak preview?

December 10, 2007 7:49 am | link

jiahui says:

Actually, if you take a look at the Guardian article here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7139567, it looks pretty optimistic for New Line and the sequels since they have already recouped 80% of their budget by selling rights and using tax breaks.
Also, didn’t Deborah Forte already say during the Cannes press conference that they were going to make the sequels?
(http://www.bridgetothestars.net/news/press-conference-report-images/)

December 10, 2007 7:57 am | link

Ravi says:

that’s a good question, “truth”, … do they even consider the amount of money they made off sneak previews? obviously, lots of fans must have gone that day as well as general audiences.

December 10, 2007 8:30 am | link

Rachael says:

And yet it was still at the top of the list for most viewed movie this past weekend. You also have to remember that its coming at a point where children are still in school and college students have finals. I had to travel all the way home in order to see it on opening weekend, and this is in the middle of finals. And i know most of my friends that are fans couldn’t even make it because of their workload. So my guess is taht its going to pick up speed as the week goes along. Plus, i’m telling everyone to go see it. i think they did a very good job with what they had to work with.

December 10, 2007 8:39 am | link

RHZ says:

For what it is worth, in San Francisco California, the movie was more or less sold out on opening day. There is only one multiplex showing TGC and the gate attendant told me the first few shows sold out as early as Wednesday. I was barely able to snatch a ticket for myself for a completely packed 10 PM show. I felt somewhat bad for the late comers or others who decided they wanted popcorn because all the decent seats were gone more than half an hour before the trailers started.

More than a few expressed vocal enthusiasm when the trailers were done and the words “Feature Presentation” graced the screen before Eva Green began the voice over. Based on what I’ve seen with my own eyes, I’m curious: How many screens did TGC open with and how does it compare with those other fantasy epics which were cited? If other screenings were as packed as the one I attended, I think the movie is doing very healthy.

December 10, 2007 9:11 am | link

Lee_Scoresby says:

wow, why is btts.net having such a negative comment about it? i mean, where is the optimism, smile a little! it far from flopped, and this is a huge exaggeration.

December 10, 2007 9:11 am | link

Susan says:

Well I’m not as optimistic as others–if you bring up rottentomatoes.com’s list of reviews it has really tanked, with a lot fewer glowing reviews than horrid ones. The good reviews also seem to talk a lot about it being a great fun fantasy flick (as in, who cares it’s just simple-minded) and the bad reviews tear it apart for not going into anything controversial. The review in my paper said “Tickle me Elmo is more subversive” and gave it only 1.5 stars. I almost think that the bad reviews are going for the jugular in their negativity–like the negative remarks are just over the top and mean. I notice that a lot of people are just ripping into Weitz and as far as I can tell he did what he could do, but the studio if anyone is at fault for keeping the controversial material out.

I honestly can’t believe that films 2 and 3 will be made with all the important elements (the REAL dark materials) intact, no matter what their box office returns are, so while I hope good things for Weitz and Pullman, I could care less if that studio shuts down due to lack of returns. They did it to themselves by in effect censoring the material to pander to the masses.

December 10, 2007 9:35 am | link

Todd says:

There were 8 people at the showing I went to. Although it was a 9:10 showing on a Sunday night. Not that college kids don’t stay up and out late on a school night, but as somebody said, they may have had to study for finals (which I actually have to do, as well). And the fact that the theater is fairly new may have a little to do with it.

As for my opinion of the movie, I think the pacing was a little too hurried, but I suppose they had to rush some things in order to fit everything in. They really could’ve made a separate movie for each section of the book. Or at least of half the book.

They did leave out a lot of things, but I don’t think it hurt it too bad. They were mostly (and I say, mostly) things that perhaps only fans of the books would care about, but still. And it definitely wasn’t as horrible as Eragon, which left out main characters and key plot points which drove the story. The people who made that movie are idiots.

December 10, 2007 9:39 am | link

Aurone says:

I’m holding to my belief that if New Line hadn’t of tried to make this the ~Next LOTR~ then it might of fared better.

December 10, 2007 10:19 am | link

Par says:

Well, I couldn’t get my significant other to see ANY movie with me this weekend because he has finals (and he is a huge movie buff, moreso than me). So there might be something about that…

December 10, 2007 10:42 am | link

RHZ says:

fell like an idiot for amending my first comment, but there was only one multiplex in San Francisco from which tickets were available *online*. Also must agree with those who insightfully noted that a great many of the potential audience are busy with school right around this time of the year.

I also believe that any potential director’s cut will bring a more “rounded” feel to the movie as a whole. Even at ~2 hours, certain parts feel rushed and truncated. But anyone who has been paying attention should have noticed that much more has been shot than has been shown. And I’m not just talking about the real ending from the book. For example, in one of the featurette/behind-the-scene clips, we observe a few seconds from after the battle at Bolvanger where the past relationship between Farder Coram and Serafina Pekkala is obviously played out as the witch promises the Gyptian to protect Lyra.

December 10, 2007 10:54 am | link

DJ says:

I dragged about fifteen of my friends to the film with me. They really liked it but had a few criticisms, all to be expected — most hadn’t read the books (those of us who had were basically delirious with expectation when the credits rolled). If we want Subtle Knife to get greenlighted, then we ALL have to be getting our friends to go see the movie — I might even organize a second trip. Come on, guys! Break some records! Make week 2 bigger than week 1! Keep this thing going!

December 10, 2007 10:58 am | link

Ravi says:

Maybe there is still some hope… check this out guys:

“Despite Compass’s lackluster opening, Mittweg [of New Line Cinema] says a franchise isn’t out of the question. ‘There are always plans to do sequels,’ he says. ‘We just have to figure out how to do them.’ ”

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2007-12-09-box-office_N.htm

(see last line of article)

I REALLY HOPE that this is NOT the end for the Subtle Knife and Amber Spyglass!!

December 10, 2007 11:26 am | link

Lasse86b says:

I also think it’s much to early to say whether or not TGC has tanked. That seems to be such an overstatement to me. Anyway, a random observation from my part is that Rottentomatoes features ONLY english-language reviews (for good reason to) - but my point is, that however precise their review aggregator is, they are not representative of a worldwide overall grading but only American (and maybe English, I don’t know)

My point is, that word of mouth in Europe is extremely good to say the least. Especially when compared to the USA.

December 10, 2007 11:28 am | link

virgile says:

Too early to tell. Internationally the movie has grossed 55 million $ for a total of 86 million $ as of December 9th. They will make their money back but will it be enough to inspire a venture into 2 more controversial movies ?

December 10, 2007 11:38 am | link

Tarantinoand says:

I think NLC made a mistake throwing so much money into a film-adaption and than change so much from the book. I loved the film, but with that much money, it should have been possible to make a 3 hour movie, with very little changes.
I say, lets give Chris Weitz a big hand, for his work was damn good, and let us turn over anger against capitalism in it’s worst form New Line Cinema.

But fans, cross your fingers for seqeuls!

December 10, 2007 11:56 am | link

Caitlyn says:

hmm, worldwide grosses are helping me keep my optimism.
I just can’t imagine how the New Line execs feel if I’m this distraught over it though. They CAN’T not make the next two films… mew.

At least it didn’t flop more than Eragon… now THAT would have been a total embarassment.
Although I hadn’t realized Stardust, a great movie made out of an awesome book, had gotten that low. Goes to show that quality =/= box office returns.

December 10, 2007 11:56 am | link

Gabrobot says:

“Mittweg also “sort of” confirmed the size of “Compass’ ” production budget, saying that New Line “always mitigates on the downside” via foreign presales. “Once we know more about the final boxoffice tallies, and how they will end up, I think we will decide to embark on the second film”"

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/international/news/e3i58cca3606862e9732d8c1bffd6186e1f

Hmmm, looks like New Line is still determined to make a franchise out of HDM…maybe there’s still hope…

December 10, 2007 12:05 pm | link

merlin says:

i think what you really have to worry about is studio interference in regards to the sequels, because the studio is dissapointed with the numbers .
that and the fact that both I am legend and Alvin and the chipmunks open next week which means the most TGC can hope for is probably third.
Good Luck!

December 10, 2007 12:30 pm | link

Elvenstar says:

I’ve seen the movie 3 times this weekend. Here in Russia (St.Petersburg) I noticed good attendance of theaters. And a lot of organised groups of children (school classes with teachers) Some were bored because either too small 2 understand the theory of multiuniverse etc. some not. A lot of cheering 4 Iorek. I think it’s NLC’s fault that they tried 2 please everyone and interfered with Chris’ work.
And finally made a film neither 4 adults nor 4 children. Children were bored because the lack of humour, adults were bored because it wasnt dark, controversial and thought provocing enough.
The intl BO will be all right, but again it’s another of numerous NLC’s faults that they haven’t promoted the film strong enough here (I dont know about other European countries, only CIS. BTW the dubbing here is awful!), maybe they relied 2 much on the USA… Most people here just dont know there’s a book by Pullman etc. they go just 2 see Daniel and Nicole or just 2 see a fairy-tale. Part of me wants NLC 2 bankrupt (and hopefully let Hobbit finally go 2 PJ!!) but another part wants the sequels:)
But what I (and my daemon Nicoleus:) want is 2 see the extended cut of REAl CHRIS WEITZ movie!

December 10, 2007 12:53 pm | link

Kinders says:

What means this “domino effect”?

December 10, 2007 1:22 pm | link

Matt says:

Firstly a foreign BO smash for GC will not translate into dollars for NLC as they pre-sold the rights to all foreign territories, although amazingly NLC are still talking up
sequels

Film finance is a murky business with pre-sales and a large subsidy from the UK tax payer mitigating much of the cost.
Frankly I don’t think CW has much to be ashamed of. He has brought in a perfectly decent family movie.

My feeling is that, whilst CW has proved himself to be a much better director than, say, About a Boy would suggest (a movie I particularly disliked), his political skills in managing the relationship with the studio is what seems to be lacking.
Clearly by employing a relatively inexperienced director NLC felt it would be easier to have control over the final product. And so it proved, with massive re-edits and changes at the last moment, presumably at the behest of the producers. The biggest being the removal of the last scenes of the third act.

At the end of the day CW’s motivation should have been to preserve the arc of the story against studio interference. I guess that this was his intention, but given the ending, it seems his political skills weren’t up to it.

Having said that I took two 11 year olds to see it over the weekend and they were unanimous in saying that it was “fantastic!”. Let’s face it, you could get no better review from the movie’s target demographic.

December 10, 2007 2:53 pm | link

foulksy says:

hey

i just saw it! Wow

But then i saw the box office results…
Its USA box office and a huge factor is of course the christians and other religous groups but also most haven’t read the books like Europe!!

I see it as its a waste of time removing the religous stuff coz even if you do they still WONT WATCH IT!!!! like we can see

Nt one of my friends are allowed to see it which sucks!!

I see hope coz its the fisrt week, they probably didnt even add the sneak preview money, and like the previous comments their are finals coming up!!!

NLC must get a life and stop comparing it to LOTR cause it is completly different! They are expecting alot from the film, too much infact! They had a HUGE budget so why not a longer film- they spent alot on scenes to later edit most of them.

NLC is like the magisterium and chris is like Asriel. The Mag. is capturing and controlling the world while chris wants to do something else but they dont let him!!

I defiantly will do wat eva it takes for sequels and hopefully us fans can save it!! its not a flop it just missed expectations but next wk it wont!!!

December 10, 2007 4:14 pm | link

Mr-Subtle-Mouth says:

It did better in the UK because here there is no Bill Donohue’s and Catholc League’s to poison peoples minds with their censorship.

December 10, 2007 4:25 pm | link

Silverfist says:

HEY! NEW LINE! GET WITH THE PROGRAM, HUH? DOING ANYTHING THAT COULD RESULT IN MESSING UP ANYTHING TO DO WITH HDM IS A CRIME! Yeah, a CRIME!

Cuz it SHOULD be!

That’s all I’ll say for now, because actually, I’m still hopeful for sequels, and I’m just mad at New Line.

December 10, 2007 4:28 pm | link

MAX says:

The budget is 180 millions not 250, and Nikki Finke is the same journalist who said that Warner Bros should not do anymore movies with women. I don’t care…
Worldwide result is 80 million and 27 million in the first week-end is good, not great, but non bad.

December 10, 2007 4:36 pm | link

tari says:

the figures so far dont look good, but i’m looking at this a different way. The HDM box set is at #9 on Play.com, and #4 on amazon on the bestsellers lists, and we already heard last week book sales have gone up by 500% in the past 3 months due to publicity. at waterstones the books are only at 16, but are featured on their front page as books of the week. so yeah the movie may not be doing great, but the books certainly are, i dont know bout you guys but thats even better news that if the film had done well.

December 10, 2007 5:23 pm | link

Gabrobot says:

Matt, pre-selling (while maybe not the greatest idea in retrospect) has apparently paid off a huge part of the budget leaving much less to be paid off from what they get domestically.

December 10, 2007 5:51 pm | link

Gabrobot says:

Just saw this article linked at hdm.org:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7139567

“But Mittweg said New Line sold off the foreign rights, with proceeds covering about 60 percent of the film’s budget. Taking into account outside investors and tax breaks, he said New Line was covered for about 70 to 80 percent of the budget, and the film would be profitable for the studio.”

Whoa…well guess it’s not as bad as I thought…!

December 10, 2007 6:04 pm | link

Donna says:

This movie gave off flop sweat the moment I saw the teaser poster several months ago, which looked bland and generic, like the studio didn’t even understand its own product.

My cousin (who hadn’t read the books) saw the trailer for this on TV and said he thought Iorek looked like the Coca Cola polar bear. Not a good sign.

And as far as them changing the ending of the movie and not even showing the last chapters of the book… well that severely hurt my own enthusiasm for seeing it. I went, but felt disappointed before I even went in.

December 10, 2007 6:26 pm | link

Bloop says:

We’re dying to see it, but we won’t be until the Christmas holidays. It will be the whole family going, not just a couple of us. I didn’t even see the LOTR stuff on opening days, we’re a busy family this time of year. I’ve never understood this opening day obssession of the studios.

December 10, 2007 7:03 pm | link

Bloop says:

Folksy “Not one of my friends are allowed to see it which sucks!!”

Not allowed ? What is it porn ? Where do you live ?

December 10, 2007 7:05 pm | link

Entilzha says:

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to see it, and there were going to be 3 of us going. Hopefully we’ll see it next weekend. A friend saw it and really loved it, but he hadn’t read the books.
I would imagine kids being in school–those kids whose parents will let them see it–and young adults taking finals–will all be able to see it in the next couple of weeks.
And hey, if garbage like Resident Evil (based on a video game) can spawn multiple sequels, surely HDM can. I mean, it’s been #6 for the trilogy selling on Amazon. That’s nothing to shake a stick at!
I do hope the sequels get made, there’s so much more to show and tell.

December 10, 2007 7:30 pm | link

Elvenstar says:

Thanks, foulksy! I LOVED ur comparing of NLC to Magisterium and Chris to Asriel! Its just so true! LOTR will be my #1 forever, but why try 2 make the same, HDM is just so interesting piece on its own. There’s still hope. All that I talked to after the movie wanted 2 read the books and loved Dakota. Why waste such a talent!

December 10, 2007 9:39 pm | link

foulksy says:

Bloop

the reason why my friends were not aloowed to watch it coz parents sent emails around telling them about how bad it is. They only mentioned the bad stuff (plan to overpower the authority)and no good stuff (the film is religous free) so their parents band them from watching it!!!

Does it matter???? (your last question)

December 10, 2007 10:09 pm | link

john [2] says:

lol, lol, lol .
makes sense .
rubbish film .
they shuda spent longer on it, and perhaps listened to the fans who know EXACTLY wahts wrong wi it
i speak not only for myself wehn i say I CUDA DONE IT BETTER
i swear any of the other fans cud ahve
so anyway
………heres hoping they dont make the next two . :)
even at the odeon ther wasnt very many people .. urghhhh xx

December 10, 2007 11:42 pm | link

Bloop says:

Foulsksy -

“Bloop

the reason why my friends were not aloowed to watch it coz parents sent emails around telling them about how bad it is. They only mentioned the bad stuff (plan to overpower the authority)and no good stuff (the film is religous free) so their parents band them from watching it!!!

Does it matter???? (your last question)”

Not allowed makes me wonder if you’re in the Sadan, or Texas or something….

I’m taking my 10 year old daughter, and most parents I know are looking forward to it and taking their kids over the holidays. We seem to live in somewhat differant enviroments.

December 10, 2007 11:54 pm | link

Sam says:

This is about what I expected. I was surprised the movie wasn’t the smash-hit they were going for…but then I saw it, and I get the picture (no pun intended ^_^). It wasn’t as amazing-awesome-incredible as I was hoping for, but it was a good movie.

I don’t think U.S. religious groups have much to do with it, though (a few people mentioned them). I’m a Christian, and I happen to love the series, so I’m connected to both fronts… yeah, no real impact that I can see.

December 11, 2007 12:38 am | link

Bloop says:

I pooched up. I mean Sudan. Not Sadan.

Bad stuff is overthrowing the Authority ? That is the good stuff !

December 11, 2007 12:52 am | link

Skye says:

I saw it on opening night in a theater in Arkansas, and the seats were about three-quarters full. That’s not as much as I expected for such a big-budget movie, but there really weren’t that many people at the theater in general (it was a cold, rainy, foggy night). I’m planning on seeing it again in theaters, possibly with family over the holidays.

December 11, 2007 1:05 am | link

Ardea says:

I still think there might be hope for The Subtle Knife. I just hope The Golden Compass is doing better other places, than it is here in Texas. Almost no one here is aloud to watch the film or read the books, and I’m really getting sick of people giving me odd looks when I say that I like them!

December 11, 2007 1:28 am | link

Bloop says:

I’ve been off the cuff, and kinda hard in my phrasing, and I appologize.

This has really touched me Ardea , when you said “o one here is aloud to watch the film or read the books” - are you high school aged or abouts ? This is parents and teachers giving the nasty looks ?

I’m in Canada and dropped into a bookstore to grab a copy of the book for a friend. The guys behind the counter ( late teens ) were talking about the books ( having read them, would again, going to see the movie ) - and when I gave the book to my friend, other’s saying things like, ” Oh I’ve heard those are really good. I want to see the movie.”

I’m saddened that what I feared ( but couldn’t really imagine happening ) - did. That this has become a real issue for some people.

December 11, 2007 2:14 am | link

spade06 says:

I know exactly what they could have done to make the film interesting to more people, which is to tell the story the way it originally was and not to compromise any of it’s spiritual value for fear of riling up the right-wing American attack machine.
If you ask me, New Line and everyone in charge of this production shot themselves in the foot doing what they did to this movie. I am not surprised.
Had this film dared to take on the organized religion-as-dogma principle as well as more fully explored the biblical and miltonic aspects of the book, I think the movie would have been wildly successful culturally and monetarily.
That I have not yet been to see it and have been obsessed with these books for years I think says something about the way the movie was formed and marketed.
New Line was not directing this movie at Golden Compass fans. It was directing the movie at a “market” that they though existed, which really does not.
The “market” is people who want to see something that interests them, and New Line has failed to arouse the public interest with this movie.

December 11, 2007 2:29 am | link

Ardea says:

Bloop, I am high school aged, and yes sometimes it is the parents giving me nasty looks-, but other teenagers do as well. The part of Texas where I live is very religious and I have to put up with this sort of thing all the time. I wish I lived in Canada or Britain. But luckily it’s not like this everywhere in the USA, and some people in Texas can think for themselves instead of taking in everything they’re told without a second thought.
I just hope the movies do well. It will make me feel so much better if they make the next two films. Even if they are a bit watered down, it will still be better than nothing.

December 11, 2007 2:29 am | link

Ben/Hoobits says:

OK I’m going to put a rather broad theory into play.

Let’s say 60-80 percent of a budget at or around $250 million was covered by foreign sales and outside investors/tax cuts. If so than the $80 million or so it made worldwide over the weekend has covered the budget and now marketing is left, which is apparently another $60 million. If the film’s final tally at the box office worldwide is around $300 million then New Line has a profit of around $150 million, which is at least enough for the production budget on TSK (They could probably even shoot it for less).

So really, New Line will make some number of profit on the film if what they say about foreign rights is true.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if they only sold the rights for TGC, thus they make even more selling the rights for TSK , at least.

December 11, 2007 2:33 am | link

the truth says:

I really hope they don’t castrate the religious elements if they make TSK and TAS.

December 11, 2007 2:38 am | link

Bloop says:

Ardea, thanks for the quick response. At least you know that everyone and everywhere isn’t frowning at you.

I’m really looking forward to seeing it, and like you, want to see the next 2 as well. I’ve a got a feeling we’ve got a Ratatoulle on our hands, where the greater hit comes from Europe. Of course book sales have gone through the roof everywere. I was seeing the boxed set in many carts in Costco last week.

December 11, 2007 2:42 am | link

Icy [Sayuri] says:

I wonder if the Catholic organization’s little boycott is actually part of this? I mean, there seems to be no mention on that.

I believe that part of it is that midterms are coming out for about everyone grade six and up, and with the film rated PG13 that basically takes out a good number. I managed to catch it the sneak preview day, and I wanted to see it again, but I was busy studying for the overload of quizzes and such that week.

I’ll try and see it again, but truthfully I don’t mind what the numbers are here, as long as they make the Subtle Knife. I think that they actually did a great adaptation here, and I’m naturally curious about the next.

-shrugs- I’m just another fan. I don’t know much.

December 11, 2007 3:28 am | link

matt says:

Well, well these guys think TSK will get the green light…
we’ll see!

December 11, 2007 3:40 am | link

Wytchbabi says:

I don’t know. I mean, like a lot of you, I’ve been following the production of this film since the very beginning, and I had really high hopes for it. In many ways I WAS very impressed, but there were quite a few things in this film that really disappointed me, and for most critics and fans that’s all it takes to make a film a flop. Dedicated movie-goers who read film reviews all the time may not feel motivated to go see it, whether or not they’ve read the books. And there’s also the type of fan who will refuse to see the movie when they’re so in love with the book. I would have to say that this movie is on very shaky ground.

December 11, 2007 3:46 am | link

matt says:

Ooops, I meant
these guys
“http://www.nationalpost.com/rss/story.html?id=158690
think TSK will get the green light…
we’ll see!

December 11, 2007 3:54 am | link

lee says:

Guys, the movie is really doin’ well here in Asia!!! I attended an afternoon matinee (1st day of release-Wed)and the theatre was two-thirds full; they even added one screen the day after…..remember the majority of revenue (movies) now comes from the foreign box office!!!!

December 11, 2007 3:59 am | link

Ashe says:

When do you think we can expect an answer about the sequels? I think Weitz said in an interview that if the studio decided to make TSK they would have to start pre-production right away. I hope they can let us know before the New Year.

December 11, 2007 4:02 am | link

Kristyn says:

I discovered on the RT website that the U.S. Council of Catholic Bishops actually approved this movie for viewing by adults and adolescents (which basically matches the rating of PG-13). In the review they encouraged parents rather than forbidding their teens to see it, to discuss the thorny philosophical subjects with them afterwards. As a Catholic, it is good to see a Catholic organization that understands the fact that suppressing other opinions is not the answer. The link on their website is not working right now (it was yesterday) but you can see more info about it on the IMDB page for the movie.

At the same time, I recently discovered that the Archdiocese of Philadelphia (the one I live in), was sending out letters to all the Catholic schools telling them to warn parents not to take their kids to see this movie :( It made me furious.

December 11, 2007 5:45 am | link

Ben/Hoobits says:

Weekend actuals - slightly lower than expected at $25.8 million.

Stateside, the past week was the least attended for early December in 13 years.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2431&p=.htm

December 11, 2007 6:00 am | link

daemon_light says:

there’s no question it’ll get its money back… I mean Eragon got 248 M. total in the end. I’m optimistic… everyone should support this film if they want a sequel! I’ll be so pissed if I don’t see that footage!!

Anyway… I’m thinking it will be okay. It really isn’t THAT bad. Just a little disappointing, but HELL it’s only 3 M. off!

December 11, 2007 8:24 am | link

Janet says:

If they don’t make the sequels, I will cry. Therefore I will continue to watch the Golden Compass just to get those numbers up!

December 11, 2007 9:06 am | link

virtualgamesco says:

The Golden Compass is number one in 15 countries. Check it out below:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/

December 12, 2007 3:33 am | link

Lance Unrau says:

I sure hope they don’t make a 2nd film anyways, it’s impossible to redeem itself. I felt like crying, it was abhorrently bad. And I can’t wait until I get out of (or well actually start)film school and have a go at it myself, I just hope the opportunity arises, I know I could do a better adaptation, even with the skills I have now. Chris Weitz is a hack, Hollywood is corrupt, I’ve already started planning, and I don’t think money should even be an issue in filmmaking, it’s art, but the bloody producers have to make a ruin of that now don’t they!

December 13, 2007 7:08 am | link

Virgile says:

I do not know about the fate of the movies but talk about success for the books. Just check out any online bookstore (e.g.amazon.com) and you’d see the trilogy firmly planted in the top 10 or even top 5 depending of the day. The audiobooks on itunes are even more impressive: The Golden Compass is at number 1 and The Subtle Knife is at number 5.

December 13, 2007 11:25 am | link

karina says:

In my opinion this is a good sum for a film that was based on a book that is not as well known as Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings here in the United States. I actually loved the movie and I’m going to go see it again!

December 13, 2007 11:55 am | link

Eric Claeyborn says:

Blah! Needed better actors, needed a better plot. Computer graphics suck. Trying to appeal to adult audiences, while using non-realistic, child appealing computer graphics. It deserves to bomb! Instead, watch a rerun of any of the Lord of the Ring movies.

December 13, 2007 8:56 pm | link

The Golden Satelite Navigation System says:

Movie was a sell out to Hollywood from word go.
How can you expect something to sell when you take
the main line of the story out.

Not to mention the animation was mediocre. Half the actors characters weren’t right. Iorek looked like a cross between an over grown teddy and a dog.

An they don’t even name it correctly in the authors home country.

What amazed me was the number of people that hyped it…

It was a bit like the first Harry Potter film, in the way it was made, it looks cheap, and Hollywood.

Lord of the Rings looks like a well made film, as do the later Harry Potters (4 esp)

I hope this is a turn around point, maybe if they make the sequels they’ll put some thought and Intention into the story.

December 15, 2007 7:04 pm | link

Mockingbird says:

Oh man:

1. NEW - I Am Legend (Warner Bros) - $28,350,000, $7,862 PTA - [$28,350,000 cume]
2. NEW - Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) - $13,250,000, $3,813 PTA - [$13,250,000 cume ]
3. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $3,050,000, $865 PTA [$34,993,112 cume]

But the market really is bad, I suppose, since the studios were definitely banking on both these movies making more than they did. They are both also rotten on RT, Alvin embarrassingly so.

December 15, 2007 8:27 pm | link

Richard says:

Ben/Hoobits, sorry but you seem to be very confused about the box-office numbers. Let me clear a few things up.

(Assuming a 250 mill budget)
80% covered by selling foreign rights, tax-breaks, etc.
remaining 40% = 100 million.
approx 50% of film gross goes to theater owners.
so the movie has to make at least $200 million in the US box-office.
DO NOT COUNT FOREIGN BOX-OFFICE because New Line sold the forign rights and thus do not see any more of that money.

Bottom line, unless the U.S. box office ends close to $200m the film will not make a profit.

Everybody agree? Or am I missing something?

December 21, 2007 5:31 pm | link

ESerafina42 says:

One thing I thought was that they couldn’t seem to make up their minds how they wanted to play it. On the one hand, they tried to take out the “controversial” parts, which of course made NO difference whatsoever to the religious fanatics - here in Buffalo they said it made no difference because the movie would point kids to the books, which still have all that bad stuff in them. One priest even told the local paper that just seeing the movie would be a SIN. On the other hand, they made the Magisterium look worse by having Fra Pavel be the one who tried to kill Lord Asriel (presumably because they think Americans are too dumb to understand moral ambiguity), and then they released it TWO WEEKS BEFORE CHRISTMAS, which really got the fundies’ knickers in a twist.

December 26, 2007 12:22 am | link

mauro_1 says:

BEN/Hoobits… I know almost nothing about films and profits, but:
1st - The film didnt cost $250M, but $180M, as the firsts posts say.
2st - I dont know for sure, but if NLC sold the foreign rights, it means they wont get any money from overseas, because they sold the foreign rights… so the sequels will depend on the Domestic box office. But of course, that doesnt mean NLC dont pay attention to the foreign numbers.

December 30, 2007 5:21 pm | link

JW says:

I’m a Christian myself, and I noticed that some of you cited “censorship” by “religious groups” as a reason for the movie’s box-office floundering. I don’t believe there was any government or private “censorship” of this film. I chose not to see it because the books attack my faith. I made a free personal decision. I also exercised my freedom to inform others of the author’s prejudices, and I did encourage them not to see the movie. I did NOT “censor” the movie, nor did I in any way otherwise inhibit anyone from exercising their free will. The movie flopped because it attacks something that many of us deeply care about. I think it should also be noted here that a comic strip attacking the Muslim faith was recently, widely decried by the world media, so much so that it won’t be shown on U.S. media networks. Now THAT’S censorship. But an attack on Christianity is a-ok? Anyone else uncomfortable with that double-standard? Anyhoo, that’s my two-cents worth. Hope you all had a happy New Year!

January 1, 2008 11:34 pm | link

craigde says:

to Richard

well if selling the international rights has covered the 80% then us box office needs to reach over the remaining 20% which is 50 milion

Hope this helps

January 11, 2008 10:22 pm | link

craigde says:

my bad 60% covered so 40% (100 mil) needed

January 11, 2008 10:23 pm | link

Alessandro - Brazil says:

Call Peter Jackson now!!

January 15, 2008 1:38 am | link

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